Oil prices climbed more than 1% during Asian deals on Monday, recouping part of last week’s losses as the risk of fresh sanctions on Russian crude after an overnight strike on Ukraine outweighed an OPEC+ decision to raise production.
By 3:15 pm AEST (5:15 am GMT), Brent crude was up 78 cents, or 1.2%, at $66.28 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 72 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.59 per barrel.
Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% on Friday after weak U.S. jobs data dimmed the outlook for demand, leaving them down more than 3% for the week.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, agreed on Sunday to raise output from October as Saudi Arabia pushes to reclaim market share, though the pace of increases will slow compared with recent months.
Eight member nations will lift production by 137,000 barrels per day from October, well below September and August’s increases of 555,000 bpd and July and June’s 411,000 bpd.
The decision came as a surprise, given concerns over a potential oil glut heading into the northern hemisphere winter.
ANZ analysts noted: "Oil prices have remained resilient despite rising OPEC supply. Much of that has been due to China soaking up additional barrels, but that support may be coming to an end.
"China, the world’s biggest oil importer, has taken advantage of extra OPEC supply to increase its stockpiles. Amid rising energy security concerns, its stockpile has grown 190mbbl since the beginning of 2025, with its inventory now sitting somewhere around 1.7bn barrels.
"We expect China’s restocking to slow sharply in Q4 due to worsening economics in the form of competition from new capacities and headwinds affecting domestic demand. This should see the market move into a sizeable surplus, putting downward pressure on prices."
Meanwhile, Russia launched its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine, igniting the main government building in central Kyiv and killing at least four people, according to Ukrainian officials.
United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that individual European leaders would visit Washington on Monday and Tuesday for talks on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
