United States stock futures rose slightly on Sunday evening (Monday AEST), extending momentum from Wall Street’s second consecutive winning week, as investors looked ahead to a pivotal gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole and a fresh wave of corporate retail earnings.
By 8:55 am AEST (10:55 pm GMT), futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%.
The cautious uptick followed a week where the Dow advanced 1.7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now logged gains in four of the past five weeks.
Small-cap stocks outperformed, rallying more than 3% last week, as traders positioned for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts next month, while sentiment was also bolstered by resilient economic data.
ANZ analysts noted: "July retail sales rose 0.5% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m (0.6%) gain in June. Control group sales, which are used to estimate private consumption’s contribution to GDP, rose 0.5% m/m following a revised 0.8% (from 0.5%) gain in June. Tariff price hikes will have boosted the nominal spending data in some categories, but the data indicate resilient demand.
"In a countersignal for the consumption outlook, the August (preliminary) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 vs 61.7 following the August rise in tariffs, much weaker than expected. Current conditions led the fall, dropping to 60.9 vs 68.0. Expectations were little changed at 57.2 (57.7). 1y and 5–10-y inflation expectations rose 0.5% (to 4.9%) and 3.9% respectively."
The Fed will be the main focus in the week ahead, with policymakers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual economic policy symposium.
Markets will be watching closely for signals on the future path of monetary policy, with CME Group FedWatch Tool showing investors pricing in an almost 84.6% chance of a September rate cut.
Beyond policy, earnings season continues to wind down with big-box retailers set to report. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart and Target are among the major names scheduled to release results this week, providing further insight into consumer demand.
According to FactSet, more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have now reported results for the quarter, with 81% surpassing Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations.
