The Wall Street Journal has reported over the weekend that Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, is set to cut its price estimate from US$4.25 a pound (lb) down to between $3.90-$4/lb.
In February, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, held its 2025 price forecast steady at $4.25 after raising it from $3.85 in May 2024.
That matters and it carries weight - why? Because it ships more red metal than any other country, it controls ~24% of global production.
The rumour flies ahead of Chile’s official copper forecast due later this month and could affect capital injections into raw material production.
ANZ Research said it sees a strong long-term outlook for copper prices.
“Supply still needs to increase by a factor of 1.5–3.5 over the next five years, which is a difficult goal,” ANZ said in a note.
“Copper supply challenges are likely to persist into 2025. Growth in smelting capacity globally has surpassed mine supply growth since 2023.
“This backdrop will eventually affect the supply of refined copper, production of which we estimate will increase by 3.2% year-on-year in 2025.”
If the rumour is true, further truth to the downgrade lies in the global market uncertainty caused by the current trade war and levies on imports into the U.S - oh ewhich copper still may be subject to.
Find out more: Looming tariffs put the pedal to copper metal prices
