Given that copper prices are hitting record highs in the prelude to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pending 25% tariff for the red metal, investors may wish to put on watch local copper plays most likely to benefit, that’s assuming these tariffs finally go ahead.
Today Azzet reported that copper is currently trading at a record US$11,800/t after Trump signalled plans to fast forward the original 25% tariff review on the red metal from 270 days to within the next few weeks.
To put the recent rise in the copper price in context, at the beginning of 2025, ASX 200 copper stocks were looking at copper prices of US$8,768 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Year to date, the copper price is up over 25%.
Copper could hit US$12,000/t
It’s understood that uncertainty around tariffs has widened the difference between front-month Comex - the world's largest futures and options trading exchange for metals, operated by CME Group - and LME prices to a record high of more than US$1,400 a tonne overnight on Monday.
But it’s not just Trump’s ‘maybe-maybe-not’ talk of tariffs driving copper prices higher.
Future traders are also responding to plans by major global copper producer Glencore to temporarily pause shipments after an issue at its smelter.
Traders are also expecting a major increase in copper shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential 25% tariffs.
Fast-tracking shipments to the US
Unsurprisingly, recent events have triggered a pre-emptive clambering by traders to pay higher premiums and get shipments to the U.S. ASAP.
With the flood of copper heading into the U.S. across the globe, Mercuria's head of metals trading, Kostas Bintas suspects ASX200 copper stocks could be the beneficiaries of copper prices in excess of US$12,000 per tonne.
Beyond the current dynamics playing out in the copper space, surging demand for electric vehicles is expected to be a significant growth driver for copper.
The transition to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, requires substantial copper usage.
Then there’s AI with data centres and high-performance computing, both being major users of copper.
ASX stocks to keep on watch
While copper pure-plays like Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) and dual-listed, Canada-based Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) appear to be in the poll position to benefit the most, so too do gold-copper stocks like Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), and Aurelia Mining (ASX: AMI).
However, diversified mining companies, less exposed to copper, like BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), and South32 (ASX: S32) may also benefit.
Here’s a snapshot of two key ASX large-cap copper stocks most likely to benefit:
Sandfire Resources: Market cap is $5 billion, making it an ASX200 stock; the share price is up 28% in one year and up 19% year to date.
The stock’s second-quarter copper output missed expectations, but it upgraded throughput guidance at its Motheo copper mine in Botswana. Over FY25, management expects the ramp-up at Motheo and improved operational performance at MATSA to drive copper production and earnings higher.
Capstone Copper Corp: Market cap is $1.7 billion, making it an ASX300 stock; share price is up 28% over one year and 19% year to date.
The Americas-focused copper mining company owns and operates the Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona, U.S.; the Cozamin copper-silver mine in Zacatecas, Mexico; the Mantos Blancos copper-silver mine in Chile’s Antofagasta region; and a 70% stake in the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile’s Atacama region.
The company recently priced and upsized a senior notes offering to $600 million to repay project financing debt at its Mantoverde subsidiary in Chile, reduce debt on its senior secured revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes.
Other Copper stocks to keep on the radar include:
• Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)
• Firefly Metals (ASX: FFM)
• AIC Mines (ASX: A1M)
• MAC Copper (ASX: MAC)
• 29Metals (ASX: 29M)
