United States President Donald Trump’s official trip to the Middle East on 13 May will include visits to a number of Gulf Arab states. However, conspicuous by its absence from his agenda is Israel, America’s closest ally in the region.
In Riyadh – which he also chose for his first overseas trip as president eight years ago - Trump will meet the leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman.
Choosing to visit the oil-rich Gulf states before America’s traditional Western allies underscores the region’s increasingly pivotal geopolitical role.
While Saudi Arabia which has played a pivotal role in brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Qatar, has also played a central role in negotiations between Israel and Hamas over ceasefires and hostage releases.
“It’s hard for me to escape the idea that President Trump is going to the Gulf because this is his happy place,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They’ll be keen to make deals. They’ll flatter him and not criticise him, and they’ll treat his family members as past and future business partners.”
Trump’s family also has several business ventures and real estate projects planned for the region and this has raised major questions about potential conflicts of interest.
Last month the Trump Organisation reached its first luxury real estate deal in Qatar and has plans for a billion-dollar skyscraper in Dubai whose apartments can be bought in cryptocurrency.
Meanwhile, Trump’s son Eric is currently promoting a crypto firm in Dubai while Don Jr. is preparing to talk about “Monetising MAGA” in Doha.
Discussion talks
On the agenda for discussion will be oil, trade, and investment deals that could span defense, aviation, energy and artificial intelligence.
It’s understood Saudi Arabia has already stated plans to invest US$600 billion in the U.S. over four years.
Early May saw the U.S. gave initial approval to sell US$3.5 billion worth of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets.
The sale is expected to be one of several Trump announcements during his visit to the Saudi Kingdom.
There’s also potential for new policy developments in advanced semiconductor exports and nuclear programs.
Included with these expected announcements is the potential removal of Trump’s 10% tariffs on aluminium and steel.
Regional conflicts
While Trump has chosen not to visit Israel, the country's war against Gaza terror groups is also expected to loom large over Trump's first major foreign trip.
Trump’s decision to exclude Israel from his visit to the Middle East has also fuelled speculation about tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel has set Trump’s trip as the deadline for a ceasefire deal with Hamas before launching a planned major offensive in Gaza.
Meantime, while Trump has taken an increasingly hands-off approach, the U.S. is understood to be working with Israel on a US-led plan to get aid into the blockaded enclave.
During Trump's visit to the Gulf States, Iran and its nuclear program will also be among the topics discussed.
Washington and Tehran are set to hold the latest round of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear program in Oman on Sunday.
