Roy Morgan research shows that if the Federal Election were held today, it would result in a hung Parliament and be ‘too close to call’, differing from last week when the Coalition held a slim lead.
At the time of writing, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) is on 50% (up 2%) and the Coalition is on 50% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis, leading to either party requiring the support of minority parties and Independents to form a minority government.
Support for the ALP has grown 0.5% to 30%. Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan said this is likely due to the lower-than-expected inflation estimate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.4% in 12 months to December 2024, down 0.4% from the previous quarter. Levine said the closely watched “trimmed mean” measure, which strips out volatile items like food, energy and petrol, dropped 0.4% points to 3.2%, its lowest since December 2021.
“The falling inflation has raised hopes among many that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in mid-February,” Levine said.
“A cut to interest rates will provide relief to millions of mortgage holders around Australia that have endured 13 interest rate increases since early 2022.
“The Albanese government’s chances of re-election this year would be greatly enhanced if the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020 during the pandemic.”
While support for ALP is growing, support for the Coalition dropped 2% to 28.5%.
As for other parties, support for the Greens remains at a 12-month low of 11.5%, One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5.5% support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased 1.5% to 10.5%.
Of all respondents to the survey, 7% of the 1,694 electors said they can’t say who they would vote for, up from 0.5% a week ago.
