Submarine deliveries to Australia under the AUKUS pact could be delayed, according to the United States Congress’ 2025 budget analysis.
Australia is due to receive at least three Virginia class submarines from the U.S. under AUKUS, with the U.S. supplementing its fleet with new Columbia class vessels. However, U.S. submarine production has fallen behind.
"The U.S. submarine industrial base is struggling to meet the Navy’s current demand for submarines,” said a Congressional Budget Office report. "It would be very difficult and expensive for the U.S. submarine industry to increase production of attack submarines while also building 1 Columbia class ship per year.”
Columbia class submarines are around 2.5 times the size of Virginia class vessels, and are significantly more difficult to build as a result. Costs to produce Columbia class ships could surpass the U.S. Navy and Congressional Budget Office’s previous estimates, the report said.
The U.S. aims to buy two Virginia class ships each year, according to the U.S. Navy’s 2025 shipbuilding plan, but this would only be sufficient to maintain the U.S.’ target number of submarines.
“This congressional budget office report states a hard truth, that any submarines the US sells Australia under AUKUS must come from a seriously limited supply needed by the US Navy,” said Greens senator David Shoebridge, an AUKUS critic. “Despite the billions invested, including from Australia, the US shipbuilding industry is nowhere near producing enough nuclear submarines for their needs with no credible way to fix that.”
Australia is scheduled to be given two second-hand Virginia class vessels in 2032 and 2035, with at least one new submarine following from 2038.
President-elect Donald Trump’s Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio said this week that Trump’s administration would continue to back the AUKUS pact.
“I think it’s almost a blueprint, in many ways, of how we can create consortium-like partnerships with nation states that are allied to us to confront some of these global challenges, be it in the defence realm, in the technology realm, in the critical minerals realm,” said Rubio, a senator from Florida.