Often beleaguered gas supplies to Australia’s East Coast are set to surplus this year, yet consumer watchdog ACCC warns that while the market has slightly improved, new gas production and supporting infrastructure is not being brought online fast enough.
Gas volumes are now estimated to be between 77-112 petajoules (PJ) of surplus on the east coast this year; while in 2026, the forecast surplus is expected to be between 54-99PJ.
Latest quarterly projections show eastern Australia's gas market is reflecting the shifting of some contracted export volumes from the domestic peak to off-peak demand periods and higher gas output in Queensland.
The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) says longer-term regulatory certainty is needed to avoid future shortfalls of gas - an integral part of the east coast of Australia’s future energy mix for industry and households.
ACCC’s recent gas inquiry report shows that a surplus is forecast for this year and in 2026, however, domestic gas supply is in structural decline and future investment is uncertain.
The report recommends that the role of gas be made explicit in government planning so market-led developments have an extra layer of surety to go ahead.
“The southern states are already facing seasonal shortfalls and are dependent on gas being transported from Queensland,” the ACCC said.
“[They] may need to import gas to meet demand beyond the short term. However, as previously stated by the ACCC, any importation of gas will not obviate the need to continue domestic gas production.
Ensuring continued domestic supply of gas is seen as important to limit risks to energy security on the East Coast and market stability associated with reliance on international LNG markets.
ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey says current projections indicate the potential for structural gas shortfalls on the East Coast from 2027 unless supply increases or demand decreases.
“Currently, there are significant barriers to new domestic gas supply becoming available due to lengthy regulatory approval processes, large upfront capital costs, an uncertain policy environment, and a lack of competition in upstream gas markets.
“To improve the longer-term outlook, it is essential that measures are introduced that support efficient and timely investment on the East Coast and, more broadly, an orderly transition of the electricity and gas markets.”
“The latest projections for 2025 suggest that the east coast will be in surplus in each quarter next year, including in the winter months when demand for gas is typically at its highest.”